Key takeaway
There are two channels between the Fed and your wallet. Channel one is mechanical: the Fed sets the federal funds rate, the prime rate typically follows the next business day, and everything priced as prime plus a margin — your credit cards, your HELOC — reprices on a schedule you can roughly predict. Channel two is a market: fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, which the Fed influences but does not control — and they can move the opposite way. Know which channel a product sits in, and rate news stops being noise.
Where rates stand right now
The state of play, as of October 15, 2026:
| Federal funds target | 3.75%–4.00% |
| Last move | Raised a quarter point on September 16, 2026 — the first increase since 2023 |
| Prime rate | 7.00% |
| Next decision | Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (FOMC meeting October 27–28) |
This snapshot is the entire point of this page. It gets updated after every Fed decision, so the numbers above are never last cycle's news wearing a fresh timestamp.
Sources: Federal Reserve — September 16, 2026 rate decision and published FOMC meeting schedule.
Channel one: what the Fed actually controls
The Federal Reserve sets exactly one rate: a target range for the federal funds rate — what banks charge each other for overnight loans. It does not set your card APR, your HELOC rate, or your savings yield. But it owns the benchmark those products are built on.
Major banks translate the target into the prime rate — historically about three percentage points above the top of the Fed's range, which is how a 3.75%–4.00% target becomes a 7.00% prime. Prime typically moves the next business day after a Fed decision, and variable-rate contracts are written as prime plus a fixed margin. Your margin is yours; prime belongs to the Fed.
What rides this channel: credit card APRs (repriced within about one billing cycle), HELOCs (adjusted on a look-back date, roughly a month), and savings yields (banks typically reprice deposits over one to four weeks — and they drag their feet, especially on the way up).
The full walk-through, product by product: Fed rate changes: what they cost you.
Channel two: what the Fed does not control
New fixed mortgage rates are priced off long-term Treasury yields — above all the 10-year — plus a lender's spread for costs, risk, and profit. Yields are set by investors trading bonds every day, based on their expectations for growth and inflation. The Fed influences those expectations; it does not set the price.
- Existing fixed-rate loans never move. The mortgage or auto loan you already signed keeps its rate for life. This channel only prices new borrowing and refinancing.
- Your 401(k) bond fund lives here too. When yields rise, the fund's existing bonds are worth less on paper — repricing, not lost interest.
The full chain, from a Treasury auction to your mortgage quote: How bond yields affect you.
How fast each one moves
The pass-through, on one table:
| Product | How it connects | How fast it moves |
|---|---|---|
| Prime rate | Set by major banks directly off the fed funds target | Typically the next business day |
| Credit card APRs | Prime + your fixed margin | About one billing cycle |
| HELOCs | Prime + margin, resetting on a look-back date | About a month |
| Savings yields | Banks reprice deposits as their funding costs change | Typically 1–4 weeks — banks lag, especially on the way up |
| New fixed mortgage rates | 10-year Treasury yield + a lender spread | No schedule — moves daily with the bond market, Fed or no Fed |
Money news breaks. Your money finds out weeks later.
The Pass-Through translates the money news — Fed decisions, inflation reports, new tax brackets, Social Security changes — into what happens to your paycheck, your card APR, your HELOC, and your savings, and the dates it hits. Free. Only when there's real news. No advice, just the math.
Success! Now check your email to confirm your subscription.
The money news, minus the panic. Fed decisions, inflation, taxes, and other changes that affect your numbers. Free, occasional, unsubscribe anytime.
What to do with this
- Carrying card balances? September's hike is already flowing into your APR — which quietly stretches every payoff timeline. The plan matters more than the balance: Avalanche vs Snowball builds it, and the Balance Transfer Analyzer checks whether a 0% promo — a rate that doesn't float with prime while the promo lasts — beats it.
- Holding a HELOC? Expect the September move in your payment roughly a month after the decision, not the day of the headline. The mechanics: Fed rate changes and your wallet.
- Mortgage shopping or eyeing a refinance? Watch Treasury yields, not Fed headlines — and run the break-even before you act: When to refinance your mortgage.
- Cash sitting in savings? After a hike, yields typically drift up over one to four weeks and the competitive banks move first — the gap between the best and the laziest savings rate is widest right after a move. Compare properly: High-yield savings accounts.
- Wondering why the Fed is doing any of this? Inflation — still above target — is the reason rates are news at all: Inflation, in plain English.
- Either way: rate moves change the backdrop, not your paycheck. Map the whole year at the rates you've actually got: the Take-Home Pay Year Planner.
Related calculators
- Avalanche vs Snowball — a payoff plan for balances whose APRs keep moving.
- Balance Transfer Analyzer — what a 0% promo saves after fees.
- Take-Home Pay Calculator & Year Planner — see every paycheck of the year at your real numbers.
Related research
- Fed rate changes: what they cost you — how the Fed's rate reaches your card APR, HELOC, and savings yield.
- How bond yields affect you — the market rates behind mortgage pricing, savings yields, and your 401(k) bond fund.
- When to refinance your mortgage — the break-even math for acting when rates move.
- High-yield savings accounts — what competitive savings yields actually look like, and how to compare them.
- Inflation, in plain English — the force the Fed is pushing against when it moves rates.
Frequently asked questions
The Fed hiked in September. When does my credit card APR change?
Prime moved the next business day after the decision — its typical timing. Card issuers then apply the change to your APR within about one billing cycle — some take two — and it applies to your existing balance, not just new purchases.
Does the Fed directly set my mortgage rate?
No. The Fed sets a target range for the overnight federal funds rate between banks. Thirty-year mortgage rates follow long-term Treasury yields, which reflect investor expectations about growth and inflation — often the same direction, but a different mechanism.
When is the next Fed rate decision?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at the close of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. This page is updated after every decision.
Why hasn't my savings account rate gone up yet?
Banks reprice deposit rates over roughly one to four weeks after a Fed move, and they lag deliberately — the spread between what they earn and what they pay you is profit. Online banks competing for deposits usually move first.
Last updated: October 15, 2026